Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now

Five experts reveal the opportunities they see around the world.
Illustration: Steph Davidson
By Suzanne WoolleySuzanne Woolley

Investors had a whirlwind first quarter. Stocks burst out of the gate in January, then fell hard, with the S&P 500 losing 10 percent of its value in early February and ending the quarter down 1.2 percent. Now, with chatter about a “melt-up” behind us, the market is about flat for the year, and predictions of the demise of the long bull market in stocks are mounting. An April 3 Bloomberg News story summed up the mood: “Fear of missing out has turned into fear of getting caught.”

If the U.S. stock market is sobering up and calming down, investors will need to put additional energy into finding investments that promise a good return for the risk. Money taken out of the market to lock in profits will earn a little more sitting in cash now than it did three months ago, but that still won’t top inflation, which is expected to rise.

So where to invest $10,000 in a market being whipsawed by fears over trade wars and the pace of economic growth globally?

We turned to our eighth quarterly panel of investing experts with that challenge. Their suggestions have a distinctly defensive tone this time around. Recommendations range from venturing overseas to find sustainable dividend income to focusing on stock sectors that tend to outperform when inflation picks up, such as materials and energy, to prospecting for cheaper opportunities in emerging markets.

Some of the strategies outlined below are mirrored in mutual funds or investment portfolios that a panel member manages. After each expert shares his or her ideas on where to put $10,000 right now, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas offers ways to invest in the themes through exchange-traded funds, and tallies the performance of the ETF picks he made last quarter.

Before turning to the financial markets, invest some time in going over your portfolio and overall finances. With income tax season just past, you are likely more aware of where your finances stand and how you can improve them. Is your emergency fund adequate? Has your mix of stocks, bonds, cash and any other investments strayed from where you want it? Does your will need updating?

Take a quick read of “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Investors” to see how else you can shore up the parts of your financial life that are under your control. It’s about the only no-brainer investment there is.

Sarah Ketterer

Chief executive officer and fund manager, Causeway Capital Management

Go for Defensive Value

There’s a lot to be said for investment income, especially delivered via companies that are fully capable of sustaining that income for many years ahead. In sagging stock markets, some portion of an investor’s portfolio needs to produce returns now, not later. With plenty of dividend income, the wait for a market recovery shouldn’t seem quite so painful. Peer inside the global telecommunications sector and you will find many generous dividend payers also boasting financial strength far in excess of overall market averages.

These telecom stocks, unloved for their lack of recent growth and bland forecasts, have lost the interest of bull market investors. Mention Tencent or Alibaba and people will listen intently; refer to China Mobile or SK Telecom for yawns of boredom. Yet telecom behemoths offering mobile and fixed broadband services should grab our attention as ideal ballast for the inevitable bear markets. We need the services they offer—and will need them even more when fifth-generation wireless systems (5G) become commercially available.

The MSCI All Country World Telecommunications Services Index is made up of 81 constituents in developed and emerging-markets countries. By one valuation measure, enterprise value-to-Ebitda, it trades at a discount of more than 40 percent, compared with the aggregate equity market benchmark, the MSCI All Country World Index. (Enterprise value includes debt and cash when calculating company value, rather than just multiplying a company’s shares outstanding by its share price to arrive at market capitalization; Ebitda, a cash flow measure, refers to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.) The index also has a dividend yield almost 50 percent higher than the benchmark.

If sustainability of dividend yield makes you sleep better at night, focus on the companies with very low (or zero) net debt, defined as a company’s long-term debt less cash. In capital-intensive industries such as telecommunications, larger company size brings scale economies and cost advantages. Competitive, mature telecom markets typically cannot support more than three players, or returns on capital will decline for all participants. China, Japan and South Korea are three of the most attractive mature telecom markets globally.

Three-player telecom markets, in which competitors typically don’t engage in devastating price wars, often have stable participants generating reliable streams of cash. Companies rewarding shareholders by returning capital, through dividends and share repurchases, are less likely than growth-oriented peers to squander shareholder capital through overpriced acquisitions. Many telecom companies have learned that stability is one of their most attractive characteristics.

Way to play it with ETFs:  There is no ETF tracking the MSCI All Country World Telecommunication Services Index, but Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas says there is something very close: The iShares Global Telecom ETF (IXP) tracks 43 telecom stocks from about a dozen countries. It is notable for its high dividend yield of 3.5 percent, says Balchunas—and for its above-average fee (for a sector ETF) of 0.47 percent.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Balchunas chose the Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) and the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) as ways to play Ketterer’s suggestion that investors consider global utility stocks. In 2018’s first quarter, VPU fell 4.1 percent and LIT tumbled 15.3 percent. LIT fell as analysts turned bearish on lithium, fearing a supply glut, as well as possibly less demand for electric vehicles in 2019.

Think Smart Power

Utility stocks around the world have generally trailed their respective equity market performance over the past year. In the U.S., rising interest rates will push up utility borrowing costs, and corporate tax reform won’t boost earnings if the tax benefit must be passed on to customers. But just look a few years ahead, and the prospects for electric utilities may be considerably brighter than they are today.

The global conversion of internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs, including plug-in hybrids) will boost the demand for electricity delivered efficiently to public charge points and homes. If large concentrations of EVs were to charge in the same hour, demand could spike to several times the norm, overloading the grid, causing overheating and blackouts. To avoid this, many electric utilities, especially in countries determined to reduce carbon emissions, will need to increase power utility investments substantially.

With new capacity, utilities may find it more efficient and cost-effective to provide power to large industrial customers, possibly operators of autonomous vehicle fleets, where recharging can be centralized rather than scattered across countless garages and parking spots. Electric utility regulators should allow the utilities to earn a healthy return on grid upgrades, new connections (such as new power lines to electrify parking bays), smart architecture, digitization and new peaking capacity. According to Goldman Sachs, these will be big global investments: $2.6 trillion for charging infrastructure to support full passenger vehicle electrification, plus another $3 trillion spent by the utilities for transformers, new lines and smart infrastructure.

Without a proper reconfiguration of a country’s electricity distribution grid, as well as security of electricity supply, the EV rollout simply cannot happen. This effort to build infrastructure for a massive global conversion to EVs should benefit electric utilities able to distribute low-cost power incorporating renewables such as solar and wind.

Way to play it with ETFs: For a cheap and deep utilities ETF, the Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) tracks 77 utility stocks for a fee of 0.10 percent. A more out-of-the-box but related play on the move to electric vehicles is the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT). It tracks lithium miners and battery producers and has a fee of 0.76 percent.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Last quarter, the ETF that was the closest fit for Ketterer’s theme of investing in China’s health care demand was the Global X China Consumer ETF (CHIQ), which had about 8 percent of assets in the sector. In 2017’s final quarter, it gained 8.7 percent.

Invest in China’s Health Care Demand

Shifting from an emerging to a developed country, China can’t escape its demographics. As a byproduct of the one-child policy, China’s enormous population increased at only 0.6 percent per year from 1996 to 2015. That compares with the U.S. population’s expansion of 0.9 percent a year over the same period.

Low growth implies an aging population, and aging has its societal costs. Many Americans are struggling to pay for health care, and the Chinese are facing an even bigger tab. By 2050, roughly a quarter of China’s citizens will be older than age 60. With less than 6 percent of gross domestic product spent on health care (vs. 9 percent to 12 percent in most developed countries), the Chinese will likely devote more of their resources to staying healthy.

With rising disposable income per capita, China’s demand for health care, especially top-tier hospital services, exceeds supply. The central government recognizes the problems and aims to relieve congestion at the most reputable public hospitals by welcoming private capital into the industry. This flow of funds should improve conditions and spawn many higher-quality private hospitals. Other reforms include the elimination of unneeded middlemen in drug distribution, as well as prohibiting the markup of drug and medical devices.

Hospitals had become heavily dependent on drug sales to keep the lights on. To supplement their measly salaries, doctors accepted prescription-related bribes from pharmaceutical manufacturers. After a successful pilot program, zero markup of drugs became reality for most hospitals across the country this year. To speed up the approval process for efficacious drugs, the China Food and Drug Administration quadrupled its staff in 2015-16 and is on track to increase staff by 50 percent this year.

China’s health-care industry reforms, combined with the inevitable consolidation or demise of smaller or weaker players, will likely result in much greater efficiency and profitability in such areas as hospital management, drug and medical equipment distribution, private supplemental health insurance, and new-drug discovery and launch.

To complement reforms, the Middle Kingdom boasts a rising supply of young scientific talent, who are paid about a third as much as their peers in the developed world. Add to the mix a 15 percent corporate tax rate plus government subsidies to spur innovation, and the investment landscape looks very promising for Chinese health-care companies. (The standard Chinese corporate income tax rate is 25 percent, but the rate could be reduced to 15 percent for qualified enterprises engaged in industries encouraged by the Chinese government. Indigenous Chinese health-care companies are included in that category.)

Way to play it with ETFs: There are many China ETFs but none specific to the health-care sector, and most broad China ETFs have next to nothing in health-care exposure. The ETF with the most exposure to health care is the Global X China Consumer ETF (CHIQ), which has about 8.7 percent of its assets in the sector.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) rose 5.6 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30. Top holdings Chevron Corp., Schlumberger Ltd., and Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 12.6 percent, 6 percent, and 1.6 percent, respectively. 

Fuel Up on Energy

Buy high-quality energy. Investor skepticism weighs heavily on the sector, making this one of the more promising areas in this mature bull market.

Oil and gas companies exhibit cyclicality in sales and earnings, traits that investors have shunned in recent years in favor of steady growth. Relative to high-flying technology stocks, the recent performance of energy equities looks abysmal. Over the past 12 months, global energy indexes have underperformed global technology by more than 30 percent and are trading at a sizable valuation discount.

The forces of supply and demand dictate the price of semiconductors as well as oil, with the lowest marginal cost producers having a distinct advantage over the competition. Advertising, including the internet, also has a cycle. The last time markets ignored the cyclicality of technology was in the late 1990s, a rough period for the most overvalued stocks.

Investors may be worried about a global glut of crude oil, especially from rising U.S. shale oil production. U.S. shale productivity continues to surprise on the upside, especially in the Permian Basin. As marginal costs have fallen from 2014, oil producers have increased wells and drilling volumes. The threat of a possible lack of OPEC production discipline also clouds the oil price outlook.

But exploration and production costs have recently turned upward in pressure pumping, sand, rail, trucking and labor. Oil-producing nations, including OPEC members as well as U.S. shale producers, cannot afford to spend more cash than they generate. As industry profits get squeezed, oil and gas companies’ credit ratings deteriorate, constricting lending to energy. At current spot prices, the world’s oil and gas industry doesn’t generate enough cash flow to sustain the spending required to expand capacity. In U.S. shale, production volumes per well decline particularly rapidly without additional investment.

On the demand side, the energy industry will not thrive in a recession. But technology doesn’t fare well in that scenario, either. Expect at least two more decades of rising demand for crude oil and gas, as electric vehicles will only gradually substitute for gasoline.

Look for companies with productive acreage and experienced management, financial strength, and cyclically low valuations. As the crude oil price recovers—perhaps approaching $60 per barrel, with natural gas reaching $3.25 per thousand cubic feet—energy sector share prices should prove rewarding.

Way to play it with ETFs:The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is high-quality energy. Top holdings Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., and Schlumberger Ltd. make up more than 40 percent of the portfolio. There’s a liquid market for the ETF, and it's cheap, with a fee of 0.14 percent.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The SPDR S&P International Health Care Sector ETF (IRY) was Balchunas’s pick as a way to play Ketterer’s focus on big pharma companies selling at a discount. It returned 7.9 percent from Mar. 31 to June 30. 

Buy the Pharma Discount

Why do several of the large global pharmaceutical stocks trade at above-market dividend yields and below-market price/earnings ratios? Perhaps the repeated threats by President Trump to cut drug prices have scared investors.

The president will likely claim victory for something that is already happening. The large buyers of U.S. pharmaceuticals, such as pharmacy benefit managers and health insurers, continue to exert tremendous pressure on drug companies to discount prices. This is evident in 2016 data from Express Scripts that show year-on-year price percentage shrinkage in traditional pharmaceuticals and a slowing, mid-single-digit percentage increase for specialty drugs.

Importantly, utilization growth rates are greater than unit cost rises, indicating product efficacy. If the drugs weren't effective, doctors wouldn't prescribe them. Assuming buyers will pay for efficacious drugs, then the prognosis for the more innovative pharmaceutical companies is good.

Notably, several of the European drug giants with promising pipelines trade at valuation discounts to the health-care sector and to their own historical averages. Examples include Novartis AG, AstraZeneca Plc, Roche Holding AG and GlaxoSmithKline Plc. These well-managed, shareholder-friendly companies generate plenty of surplus cash to reward investors. Many of them have dividend yields at least a full percentage point in excess of the global pharmaceutical and biotech industry and well above overall equity market averages.

Famously profitable, the best-managed pharmaceutical companies should be able to offset reduced unit prices with volume growth. In their report dated January 2017, Evercore ISI analysts Umer Raffat and Akash Tewari note that most of Medicare/Medicaid spending increases are due to higher enrollment, not because of pharmaceutical costs. While total U.S. health-care spending continues to increase, the percentage attributable to prescription drugs has stayed flat, at around 10 percent.

Proposed drug pricing reforms, such as bidding, reimportation, Medicare negotiating prices and value-based pricing either already exist or have serious, likely insurmountable flaws, such as public safety. Even Medicare, the colossus of U.S. pharmaceutical buyers, probably can't negotiate prices more favorable than under current law without being forced to restrict access, as drug demand may rise. Aging demographics imply increased drug usage over at least the next decade. The most innovative pharmaceutical companies will likely benefit, even as traditional branded drug prices fade.

Ways to play it with ETFs: The  SPDR S&P International Health Care Sector ETF (IRY) has the most exposure of any ETF to international pharma companies such as Novartis AG and AstraZeneca Plc. Those companies are in the top 10 holdings. The ETF has 75 percent allocated to pharma companies, 25 percent of which are based in Switzerland. IRY comes with a fee of 0.40 percent.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The  iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) rose 16.9 percent over the past three months. Balchunas's other pick, the  PureFunds ISE Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY), gained 10 percent.

Think Long, Think Far

India is far. Flying from Los Angeles to Mumbai via Hong Kong takes about 24 hours, several meals, and almost 10,000 miles. Despite the distance, Causeway has this populous country on our investment radar. India’s demographic bulge of young consumers want to buy smartphones, cars, and homes, and their spending power rises annually.

India’s 2016 real gross domestic product growth of 7.3 percent tops the charts, beating all major countries including China. The recent demonetization to encourage a shift from cash to a digital (taxable) economy should ultimately fuel growth. Rising tax revenues facilitate fiscal spending on roads, bridges, highways, hospitals, etc., thereby boosting commerce. India’s stock market, which is severely lagging most global markets this year, has become a source of investment ideas for our clients.

Imagine a country with 90 percent of all transactions in cash. Of the roughly $240 billion of currency in circulation, the government has recently made 86 percent of that currency illegal. Exchange your soon-to-be-obsolete bank notes or they become worthless. A shortage of legal tender has placed severe working-capital constraints on businesses and harmed roughly half the population without a bank account.

Poorly implemented, the demonetization has dragged on the country’s economy as the banking system could not meet the demands of cash distribution. Longer term, the formal, taxable economy should prosper, and the central and state governments can proceed with much-needed infrastructure projects. The payment and growth inefficiencies of a cash economy should lessen.

We expect the population to open hundreds of millions of new bank accounts, resulting in a lower overall cost of funding for the country’s banking system. Prime Minister Modi's demonetization offers India an opportunity to leapfrog several banking stages, avoiding checks and bank cards and moving directly to digital payments. We believe non-cash transactions should grow 50 percent annually through to 2025 and account for 40 percent of payment transactions. Banks that already have scale in credit and debit cards, point of sale, and mobile banking should see a substantial pickup in market share.

Way to play it with ETFs: The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA)  is the fastest growing and cheapest of the India ETFs, with an expense ratio of 0.68 percent. There is an ETF that specifically tracks the move to mobile payments, called the PureFunds ISE Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY) , but it holds 80 percent of assets in U.S. companies, with just a dash of international exposure. It's also a little expensive, with a fee of 0.75 percent, and doesn’t trade a lot, so potential buyers should use a limit order that specifies the price they want to pay.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The ETF Balchunas chose to track Ketterer's advice back in October was First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV) . It rose 3.6 percent for the three months ended Dec 31.

Invest in Corporate ‘Self-Help’

In this seemingly endless environment of economic stagnation, what will drive revenue and profit growth? Central banks may be running out of monetary solutions to stimulate credit and demand. While we wait for the political landscape to become less muddled, investors can get access to companies engaged in operational restructuring or “self-help.”

These companies, boasting strong balance sheets and modest levels of debt, typically have managements committed to a continuous and inexorable process of cost cutting and increased efficiency. In mobile telephony, especially in Japan, China, and South Korea, several of the largest listed companies have found increasingly ingenious ways to extract above-industry-average returns from the mature telecommunications market. [China Mobile Ltd. and SK Telecom Co. Ltd. were in the top 15 holdings of the Causeway International Value Fund (CIVIX), as of June 30.] Smart self-help moves by senior managements of these companies have led to a reduction in capital expenditures and operating costs.

These companies are typically creating innovative and value-added services, introducing popular data plans and benefiting from supportive local regulations. Similarly, in the more mature segment of technology, “legacy tech” companies also have managements committed to reinvigorating growth. Even though these companies have valuable proprietary technology, sell-side analysts put some of them in the dinosaur category. But the analysts often take a short-term view. Market pessimism can give investors a chance to buy world-class technology franchises in transition.

For example, large enterprise software companies must make a successful transition from an on-premises licensing business model to a cloud-computing subscription-based model. Semiconductor companies currently expert in mobile wireless technology are making measurable progress to deliver next-generation technology. Look for efficient operations, focused and shareholder-friendly managements, as well as inherent advantages in research and development expertise and resulting defendable intellectual property. [SAP and Samsung Electronics are CIVIX holdings.]

Economic malaise aside, these great companies, albeit often labeled mature and in transition, still trade at valuations that imply the potential for above-market returns.

Way to play it with ETFs: The First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (TDIV)  holds tech companies that pay the highest dividend, which means it has the largest percentage of “legacy tech” names such as Intel Corp., Microsoft Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., and Oracle Corp. This “I love the 90s” portfolio has the lowest volatility, lowest average price-to-earnings ratio, and highest dividend yield of the technology ETFs.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The ETF Balchunas chose to track Ketterer's advice back in June was The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) . It rose 11 percent for the three months ended Sept. 30.

Play Japan

Something interesting is happening in the Land of the Rising Sun. The Japanese equity market has slipped 20 percent from its five-year high, reached last August, reflecting an economy unresponsive to monetary stimulus. Despite this gloom, many Japanese companies have the financial wherewithal to reward shareholders with dividends.

As of late May, over 200 Japanese stocks with market caps above $1 billion also have dividend yields greater than 2 percent (several offer yields of 4 percent), with dividend payout ratios less than 50 percent. In other words, these dividends should be well covered by earnings, and (thanks to the low payout ratios) have room to grow.

Some of the best-managed companies with generous dividends include Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (4 percent yield), Japan Airlines Co. (3 percent), Komatsu Ltd. (3 percent), KDDI Corp., and Hitachi Ltd. (both 2.5 percent). Bonds can’t compete. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is negative, making generous dividends all the more appealing.

In the U.S., investor demand for high-dividend-yielding stocks, and exchange-traded funds that track such stocks, has risen sharply in our own prolonged low-interest-rate environment. Perhaps the same will happen in Japan. Mrs. Watanabe, the proverbial Japanese retail investor, wants income. It may make sense to own some of these income-generating, better-quality Japanese stocks before she does.

Ways to play it with ETFs: The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ)  goes long the stocks mentioned by Ketterer, and many more, said Balchunas. It also shorts—bets against—the yen, and weights stocks by the size of their dividend. It yields 3 percent.

Russ Koesterich

Portfolio manager, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund

Emerging Markets May Be Cheap

Given that we’re in the 10th year of the bull market, the second-longest on record, investors are not inundated with investment bargains. Most asset classes are somewhere between reasonable and off-the-charts expensive. At the same time, volatility has returned with a vengeance, and an escalating trade dispute has the potential to disrupt what was supposed to be a year of synchronized growth. This combination does not immediately suggest adding to one of the riskier asset classes: emerging-market stocks. That said, given cheap valuations, a still-resilient economy and a stable dollar, emerging markets may represent one of the more interesting opportunities in 2018.

In an environment where valuations have been pushed ever higher by an extended bull market, most emerging-markets countries stand out as cheap. The MSCI Emerging Market Index is trading at approximately 1.6 times its book value, a 27 percent discount to developed-markets indexes. The current discount compares favorably with the 10-year average discount of 15 percent.

A larger discount might be justified, given higher volatility and political uncertainty. The irony is that much of that uncertainty is emanating not from emerging markets but from the United States. And despite the lingering questions over trade, most indicators still suggest a year of solid growth, which has historically been a tailwind for emerging markets’ outperformance.

Finally, there is the U.S. dollar. While investors sometimes exaggerate the role of the dollar in emerging markets, a weaker dollar has generally been supportive of emerging markets assets.

To be clear, there are risks. An economic slowdown or a more abrupt tightening of U.S. monetary conditions, particularly in the context of a stronger dollar, would probably cause emerging market stocks to lag. However, to the extent that the global expansion continues, emerging markets is the rarest of things in a prolonged bull market: a cheap asset class.

Way to play it with ETFs:  Balchunas points to a “cheap and deep” way to play EM in the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG). It serves up nearly 2,000 stocks across several countries, with China the largest weighting at about 24 percent of assets. It charges a 0.14 percent fee and has quietly grown assets to $50 billion since launching a little over five years ago.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Balchunas’s picks to play Koesterich’s previous recommendation to expand stock holdings internationally, the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ) and the iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA), fell 1.7 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, in 2018’s first quarter.

 

Stick With Equities—Just Cast a Wider Net

The past year was, in every sense, as good as it gets. Stocks posted gains of more than 20 percent, with virtually no pullbacks. While we’re unlikely to be so fortunate in 2018, this is not the time to abandon stocks. Given a synchronized global recovery and still-easy financial conditions, 2018 is likely to be another year in which stocks beat bonds. For those already heavily invested in U.S. equities, there are four reasons to consider adding to your holdings of international stocks.

Cheaper valuations. Based on the trailing price-earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is trading at a 13 percent premium to other developed markets. While the U.S. has recently enjoyed a strong rebound in corporate earnings, valuations have expanded even faster. This leaves the U.S. as the world’s most expensive stock market.

Faster earnings growth. Part of the reason U.S. valuations have risen relative to the rest of the world is that while earnings are growing in the U.S., they are rebounding even faster elsewhere.

More income. As stocks have risen, dividend yields have fallen. In the U.S., the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is below 2 percent. For the first time since the financial crisis, the dividend yield on large-cap stocks is now below the yield available on a 2-year Treasury note. In contrast, the dividend yield on the Euro Stoxx 50 is well above 3 percent. Australian equities yield over 4 percent. Income-oriented investors should ponder the opportunities outside the U.S.

Easier monetary policy. To be sure, 2018 is the year when most of the world’s large central banks will either be withdrawing monetary accommodation or publicly pondering its withdrawal. That said, the U.S. Federal Reserve is ahead of the curve in tightening monetary policy. Other central banks, notably the Bank of Japan, will be slower to withdraw easy money policies.

Way to play it with ETFs: The SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ) is a way to track that European blue chip stock index, and investors can use the Shares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) for exposure to Australia. The ETFs charge 0.29 percent and 0.48 percent, respectively.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The ETFs chosen to play on Koesterich’s theme of not giving up on value investing were the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV), the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE) and the ValueShares US Quantitative Value ETF (QVAL). The ETFs gained 6.5 percent, 8.1 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively.

Don’t Give Up on Value 

After a stellar back half of 2016, U.S. value names have largely disappointed in 2017. As the post-election euphoria faded and everyone faced up to the reality of still modest growth, most investors reverted to old habits: a focus on yield and growth at the expense of value.

Still, value’s relative performance may once again be inflecting. Value stocks outperformed their flashier growth cousins in September, and there are several reasons to believe that trend can continue.

First, value is cheap. While value stocks are by definition cheaper than growth, today they are much, much cheaper. Since 1995 the average ratio between the Russell 1000 Value and Russell 1000 Growth Indices (based on price-to-book) has been 0.45; i.e., value typically trades at a 55 percent discount to growth. Currently the ratio is 0.30. Value has not been this cheap relative to growth since early 2000.

In addition to being cheap, for the first time this year value may once again have a catalyst. It normally outperforms when economic expectations are improving. In contrast, when economic growth is modest, investors are more likely to put a premium on companies that can generate organic earning growth, regardless of the economic climate. This dynamic helps explain the strong year-to-date rally in technology and other growth stocks.

Recent economic data, however, have been modestly stronger, and investors are, once again, entertaining visions of tax cuts. Granted, the economic impact of temporary tax cuts is more a sugar high than structural reform, but you take what you can get. At this point, even a modest boost in near-term growth expectations is arguably enough to shift investor preferences.

This creates an opportunity for value. In an environment in which investors are more sanguine about economic growth, they are more likely to notice that value stocks are not only cheap but also offer better leverage to any economic acceleration. Value is not dead yet.

Way to play it with ETFs: When it comes to picking a value ETF, the question is how bargain basement you want to go. The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) is the most popular but has only a slight tilt toward value. The iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Weighted Index Fund (VLUE) is much more exposed to value stocks. For hard-core value seekers, the ValueShares US Quantitative Value ETF (QVAL) goes very deep to “buy stocks everyone else hates,” as its manager puts it.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Balchunas pointed to the iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) as a way to play Koesterich’s preference for preferred stock in last quarter’s writeup. It was down 0.8 percent for the quarter.

Seek Yields With Protection

There are times to stretch and take more risk, and there are times when discretion is the better part of valor. Following a bull market that turned eight years old in March and countless trillions of dollars of central bank asset purchases, few asset classes are obviously cheap. Still, in a world in which interest rates are barely 1 percent, investors can be forgiven for not wanting to stick their spare cash under the mattress.

This suggests to me a compromise: finding assets with a respectable yield that will provide downside protection if markets turn south.

U.S. preferred stock is currently yielding about 5.50 percent. This compares favorably with most of the other alternatives, including high-yield, investment-grade and emerging-market debt, and a basket of U.S. common dividend-paying stocks. [Preferred shares are sort of a stock and bond hybrid; they generally pay a fixed dividend and put you ahead of common-stock holders in cashing in shares if the company's assets are liquidated.]

More to the point, following a disastrous period during the financial crisis, preferred stock has become a much less volatile asset class, currently offering the most attractive ratio of yield to volatility of the yield-oriented plays. Comparing the yield to the three-month trailing volatility of the asset class, you get a ratio of more than 1.3. In other words, investors are receiving 1.3 percentage points of income for every percentage point of annualized volatility. This is significantly higher than any of the alternatives.

Some will recall that preferred stocks did not live up to their reputation for low volatility during the financial crisis. At that time, an index of U.S. preferred, dominated by financial issuers, fell approximately 70 percent, worse than the broader market.

I see much less downside risk today. It is not clear that U.S. financials will be at the epicenter of the next crisis, as was the case in 2007-09. The sector is much better capitalized and run more conservatively than it was 10 years ago.

While preferred stocks aren't likely to send anyone’s heart racing, a yield of 5 percent-plus in a world still characterized by low rates, high valuations, and uncomfortably low volatility is worth a look.

Way to play it with ETFs:The iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) currently yields 5.6 percent and has great liquidity. Its 0.47 percent fee is high for an ETF but below average for an ETF specializing in preferred stocks.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: To follow Koesterich’s strategy of focusing on Asian equities, Balchunas pointed to the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), which gained 5.2 percent, and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia ETF (EEMA), which returned 8.5 percent.

Look to Japan

We see the best opportunities within Asian equities, with an emphasis on Japan.

We’re now in the eighth year of the bull market in U.S. equities, and it's increasingly difficult to find bargains. U.S. stocks have done exceptionally well, but investors have been pushing valuations to somewhat extreme levels. Large-cap U.S. equities are trading at approximately 22 times trailing earnings, the highest multiple since 2010 and at more than 30 times the CAPE ratio, a level last seen near the peak of the tech bubble. Making matters worse, U.S. Treasury bond prices look extremely rich after several years of buying by central banks.

In this environment, Asian equities stand out as a relative bargain. In recent years, Japanese stocks have traded at a discount to the U.S., and that discount is particularly large today. The Topix index is trading at approximately 1.3 times book value, vs. more than 3 times for the S&P 500.

Japanese profitability has been improving since 2012, thanks to better corporate governance and share buybacks. In addition, Japanese equities offer accounting standards that are strict relative to the U.S., low leverage and the continuing tailwind of monetary accommodation. Finally, to the extent the global economy is likely to modestly accelerate in 2017, Japanese exporters are well positioned to benefit from improving global growth and a firmer economy.

We also see select opportunities in other parts of Asia, including emerging markets. In particular, Indian companies offer an interesting take on emerging markets. [Click on last quarter's tab for Sarah Ketterer's take on India.] India is a large, domestically oriented economy that is relatively insulated from many of the more macro risks that often derail other segments of the emerging-market universe.

Ways to play it with ETFs: Investors can use the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)  for Japan exposure. It is by far the most popular Japan ETF and charges 0.48 percent, about average for a single-country ETF. For Asia emerging markets, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia ETF (EEMA)  tracks many Asian countries such as China and Taiwan, as well as India, which has a 12 percent weighting in the ETF. EEMA charges a fee of 0.48 percent.

Ian Harnett

Chief investment strategist, Absolute Strategy Research

Sell the Rallies

Equity clouds may have a silver lining.

Many investors appear to be assuming that the equity volatility of early February and mid-March was largely technical. It was shallow, short-lived and lacked major contagion into other asset classes, prompting an apparent willingness to “buy the dips.”

We, however, view these bouts of market nervousness as part of an incomplete market correction and suggest that investors should “sell the rallies” and focus on more defensive assets and strategies.

Why so cautious? First, we believe that the global economic cycle has begun to slow. Our activity surprise measures, which track the extent to which economic data deviates from forecasts of investment professionals on a daily basis from the previous quarter, are negative for the first time since 2016. We doubt that the U.S. can “decouple” from a global slowdown. U.S. tax cuts may only serve to offset the impact of the higher U.S. bond yields and Fed funds rates seen in the last 18 months. With Chinese growth slowing, euro-zone activity decelerating and global real money growth decelerating rapidly, global “peak growth” is probably behind us, making U.S. and global earnings forecasts liable to disappointment.

Despite these signs of slowing growth, policymakers in the U.S. and other developed economies appear intent on “normalizing” monetary policy. The combination of rate rises and the reduction in the pace of monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, as well as the reduction in the Fed balance sheet in the U.S., will challenge the upside for global risk assets.

Slower growth and tighter monetary conditions are also a toxic combination for highly indebted companies or economies. That means U.S. high-yield debt will likely struggle, as will the banking sectors and currencies of highly indebted economies such as Canada, Australia and Sweden, which may unsettle markets more generally.

In such an environment, where are the investment opportunities? As economic growth disappoints, expect bonds to beat equities. We favor U.S. Treasuries over other developed-market government bonds. Slowing growth and easing inflation pressure also favor Chinese government debt. Options strategies that bet on a long-term higher level of market volatility or that hedge equity risk will also likely be rewarded.

Finally, many investors typically turn toward gold if global growth slows. However, silver has lagged behind gold by 17 percent in the last year and almost 50 percent in the last five years, suggesting that it may have more upside potential if the economic outlook becomes cloudier.

Way to play it with ETFs: For Chinese government debt, an asset class thought impossible for retail investors to get exposure to just five years ago, Balchunas points to the VanEck Vectors ChinaAMC China Bond ETF (CBON). It tracks fixed-rate, renminbi (“RMB”)-denominated bonds issued in the People's Republic of China by Chinese credit, governmental and quasi-governmental issuers. While the fee of 0.50 percent is decent for such exotic exposure, Balchunas notes that the ETF is very small, at $4.8 million. Those wanting to buy the ETF should use a limit order to specify the price they are willing to pay.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The Guggenheim Defensive Equity ETF (DEF) was Balchunas’s pick as a defensive market maneuver. The ETF was virtually flat in the first quarter, down 0.1 percent. Two other picks, the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) and the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO), were both positive, if barely—up 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent respectively.

 

Start Selling the Rallies

At the end of 1996, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan chided market participants for their “irrational exuberance.” Today, there appears to be little reason to repeat his comments. The shift into risk assets by investors looks like rational exuberance in response to a benign economic backdrop not seen since the 1960s, with tax cuts and low rates expected to boost economic recovery. We doubt, however, that this can become sustainable exuberance, as 2018 will likely see this benign growth and inflation mix challenged. Fear will replace greed, rewarding more-defensive investments.

Signs of excess appear almost everywhere. The global economy looks close to a cyclical peak. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index, the Institute for Supply Management’s measure of economic activity in that sector, and similar measures for the euro zone are close to 30-year highs. Falling unemployment rates during the last six months in most of the Group of 20 biggest industrialized and emerging economies have helped boost consumer confidence, while low interest rates and stable inflation have encouraged consumers and corporations to reduce their savings and spend more.

Equities are showing classic late-cycle signs, with industrial stocks up 30 percent over the last 12 months. Basic-resource stocks are up 35 percent, while the 40 percent rise in oil prices is also characteristic of this phase for the global economy. The Goldilocks economy (sustained low inflation despite economic recovery) has helped push U.S. price-earnings ratios to 25 times trailing earnings and 32 times on a CAPE (cyclically adjusted p-e) basis, levels seen only in the tech bubble during the last 70 years—higher even than in the Nifty 50 era of the early 1960s.

With interest rates subdued and central banks adding $2.5 trillion to their balance sheets in the past year, liquidity has been plentiful, keeping volatility stubbornly low and creating some of the most benign financial market conditions of the last 30 years. Such benign conditions for the global economy and markets have rarely been sustainable for long. We worry that a China growth slowdown has the capacity to offset any U.S. or euro zone recovery, while liquidity is likely to be reined back in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and in the euro zone with tapering by the European Central Bank.

If global growth slows, then interest rate expectations may have run ahead of themselves, making shorter-dated Treasuries attractive. With liquidity likely to be less plentiful, Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) could underperform conventional Treasuries. Equities are now signaling “overbought” relative to bonds on our short-term tactical models and sentiment indicators. If earnings-per-share growth is 5 percent to 6 percent, as our models suggest, rather the consensus of 13 percent, oversold defensive sectors such as consumer staples and health care may outperform. Agricultural commodities are relative safe havens compared with industrial commodities.

Successful long-run investors are typically those who avoid the losses at the peaks of markets rather than those who focus on the next big win. It may not yet be time to be in full defensive mode. But after the gains of the last year and the post-credit-crunch bull market, it is time for equity investors to start selling the rallies rather than buying the dips.

Way to play it with ETFs: For defensive sectors, there’s the Guggenheim Defensive Equity ETF (DEF), which tracks the 100 companies that have the best risk and return profiles during a bear market. It charges 0.60 percent. To play agricultural commodities, there is the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) or the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). DBA charges 0.89 percent, and MOO’s fee is 0.54 percent.

Jim Paulsen

Chief investment strategist, the Leuthold Group

Brace for Inflation

Rising inflation and higher bond yields will likely be common during the balance of this recovery. While the bull market does not appear to be over, neither is its current, corrective phase. Therefore, expect a difficult bond market and a stock market poised for additional volatility—or even a further decline this year—without losing sight of the potential for additional gains during the next few years.

Bond exposure should be at a minimum, and a barbell approach may prove best in the stock portfolio. Own sectors that outperform if inflation worries intensify (the materials, energy and industrial sectors) or if yields keep rising (financials) but also have some defensive stocks (utilities, telecoms and consumer staples) which can buoy the portfolio should the market suffer a further decline.

International stocks offer a better risk-reward profile, compared to the U.S. stock market. They are relatively cheaper, do not face as intense overheat pressures, have younger economic and earnings recoveries, benefit more from a weak U.S. dollar and will likely benefit from more supportive policy officials. A tilt toward small-cap stocks also looks attractive. They tend to outpace during periods of rising inflation and higher yields and are currently under-represented in most portfolios.

Investors may also consider adding a few additional dimensions to their portfolios. Thanks to the Federal Reserve, cash finally has a yield, which should keep rising this year. A small allocation to cash may prove opportunistic should the stock market suffer a further decline. A direct allocation to commodities (via a commodity ETF) could also help diversify your portfolio. Commodity investments should perform well if inflation worries intensify, while both the stock and bond market may suffer declines.

Finally, consider a small allocation to a hedge fund. The best of this bull market is already past and for the rest of its duration, stock market returns are likely to be far lower and probably more volatile. A true hedge fund—one that aims to provide a return across all kinds of market environments—that offers stable, mid-single-digit returns is compelling and should help manage risk.

Way to play it with ETFs: Several hedge fund strategies are now available in ETFs, says Balchunas. Many of them, like real hedge funds, provide uncorrelated streams of returns. The JPMorgan Diversified Alternatives ETF (JPHF) is actively managed like a hedge fund but comes at about half the cost, with a fee of 0.85 percent.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) lost 0.7 percent in the first three months of 2018, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) slid 2.5 percent. Balchunas’s third suggested ETF, the iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV), eked out a 0.1 percent gain.

Create a Meltproof Portfolio

The question for 2018 is how to deal with a melt-up. Clearly, the stock market is racing higher nearly every day, but risks are also rising. Challenges facing stocks include investor sentiment that is now too bullish, declining financial liquidity, rising interest rates, high valuations, stout economic and earnings expectations, and slowly but noticeably intensifying inflationary pressures. The primary risks are exiting a melt-up too soon and not exiting soon enough!

How best to respond to this quandary? Here are a few suggestions.

First, de-bond your stock portfolio. Last year, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and this year the bond market will probably raise yields. Reduce exposure to those sectors (utilities, telecom, consumer staples) that historically do the worst during periods of rising yields. [For a different take on the promise of utilities, see Sarah Ketterer’s comments below.]

Second, allocate away from U.S. stocks and toward international developed and emerging stock markets. Overseas markets face fewer challenges, offer better relative values and more conducive policy support, are widely underowned and would benefit from ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Third, focus on capital goods stocks. Business investment is likely to lead the U.S. recovery in the next few years, and stock sectors tied to this trend, including technology, industrials, materials and energy, should perform best. Technology gives the portfolio solid price momentum and sexy new-era unit growth. Industrials offer a play on the ongoing global manufacturing recovery. Materials are the quintessential inflation play in a U.S. economy likely to face intensifying overheat pressures. And energy is a contrarian play—out of favor but a good value in a sector that also benefits from higher inflation and rising yields.

Fourth, a small allocation directly to commodities may make sense this year. If inflation fears intensify, then a commodity ETF will likely outpace both stocks and bonds.

Finally, for the first time in this recovery, cash offers a return. Perhaps add a 5 percent cash position now and another 5 percent each time the 10-year bond yield rises by another quarter percentage point.

Way to play it with ETFs: For exposure to the international developed markets and the emerging markets in one fell swoop, there’s the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS). It provides an investor with exposure to about 40 countries, from France to China to Peru, for a fee of 0.11 percent. The typically overlooked SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) is a good broad market play, but with a tilt toward industrials and financials. It has a fee of 0.17 percent. For cash, investors can use the iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV), which is essentially the ETF version of putting your money under a mattress. Its fee is 0.15 percent.

Joe Brennan

Principal and global head of Vanguard’s Equity Index Group

Make Your Cash Work Harder

If the past few months’ wild market volatility teaches us anything, it’s that diversification is as important as ever. With a $10,000 windfall, now may be the opportune time to re-balance your portfolio to ensure you have the appropriate allocation of stocks, bonds and cash that meet your long-term goals and appetite for risk. If you find that your portfolio is stock-heavy, direct the new cash to bonds to bring your portfolio to its target allocation.

If you’re investing longer-term in your portfolio and are nervous to go all-in, consider parking the money in cash short term and setting up a systematic investing plan ( i.e., using dollar cost averaging on a regular basis). Cash accounts come in many flavors: bank savings accounts, CDs and money market mutual funds, among others. The good news is that yields are increasing on these vehicles.

With interest rates rising—Vanguard expects rates to continue to rise over the next few years—yields should grow more bountiful. Money market funds are worth considering for yield, convenience and flexibility. You may earn the same as, or even more than, most banking products while enjoying a bit more flexibility than you’d have with some products such as CDs. For example, a number of prime money market funds, which invest mostly in short-term corporate debt securities, offer yields of more than 1.5 percent.

Money market funds can be used at any time to fund unexpected costs, such as a health emergency or new car. And unlike CDs, withdrawals from a money market fund won’t result in an early withdrawal penalty. Additionally, depending on the money market fund you select and the tax bracket you’re in, some funds provide the opportunity to seek a competitive, tax-free yield. Finally, if and when you decide to add exposure to stocks or bonds, money market funds at your fund provider typically offer automatic investing programs to enable you to dollar-cost-average into stock and bond funds.

With today’s rising interest rates, keeping your cash in a zero-interest-rate account is the modern equivalent of stashing it under your mattress. If you’re interested in keeping some cash on hand as part of your diversified portfolio, money market funds may be a good option.

Way to play it with ETFs:  Balchunas’s suggestions of ETFs to place cash in include the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH), which holds Treasuries maturing in one to three years. It has a fee of 0.07 percent and yields 1.24 percent. Other options are the iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV), which holds Treasury bills maturing from one month to one year, and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL), which holds Treasuries maturing from one to three months. Both are very liquid and charge 0.15 percent and 0.14 percent in fees, respectively.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays:  Balchunas chose iShares Core Conservative Allocation ETF (AOK) and the iShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF (AOA) as ways to act on Brennan’s advice to rebalance portfolios if they had fallen out of whack. The ETFs fell 1.1 and 0.6 percent, respectively, in 2018’s first quarter.

Rebalancing Act

Over the past four months, bonds have experienced a bit of a selloff. Yields on the 10-year Treasury have crept up, from 2 percent to more than 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, the global stock market continues to charge ahead. The S&P 500 and global equities more broadly are up more than 10 percent during that period. This is a textbook example of why investors should make sure to systematically rebalance their portfolios.

If you forgot to adjust your asset allocation at the end of 2017, now is a really good time to do so. There is a chance your risk profile has changed. Use your $10,000 to bring your portfolio back to its target allocation.

Alternatively, consider investing in a target-date fund, which automatically rebalances for you. The fund managers maintain the target asset allocation and gradually shift the allocation to fewer stocks and more bonds over time. The fund is designed to become more conservative the closer you get to the anticipated withdrawal date.

Whenever possible, you should look to invest via tax-advantaged accounts: IRAs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s, etc. Now is the perfect time to contribute. We are in the four-month window where you can top off any remaining capacity from 2017, or start to work away at your 2018 contributions. If you qualify to invest through traditional tax-deferred plans, you will also be boosting your refund. Just be sure to know your contribution limits.

Way to play it with ETFs: While there are no target-date ETFs per se, there are ETFs that allocate to different asset classes depending on an investor’s risk tolerance. For example, the iShares Core Conservative Allocation ETF (AOK) is 30 percent equity and 70 percent bonds. For younger, more aggressive investors, there’s the iShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF (AOA), which aims for a 70 percent to 85 percent stake in equities. Both ETFs have a 0.25 percent fee.

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: Last quarter, Brennan raised the issue of donating, rather than investing, $10,000. Vanguard, along with many other financial-services firms, has a nonprofit arm that specializes in donor-advised funds, which are a sort of long-term charitable savings account and a way to make the most of the tax advantages of charitable giving. You can’t slap a performance number on giving, but the psychic return can be huge.

Beware Market Timing

Figuring out where to invest this year has been quite a challenge. Equity and fixed-income valuations are stretched, with major stock indexes at all-time highs and bond yields barely outpacing inflation. Still, we caution investors against the folly of market timing. Our long-term models forecast equity returns in the 6 percent to 8 percent range and fixed-income returns in the 1 percent to 3 percent range annually over the next decade. 

To be sure, I emphasize the importance of sticking with a savings plan to remain on track with your financial goals. Given relative valuations in today’s market, however, it makes sense to step back and take a holistic look at your financial situation and options for deploying capital.

Assuming your savings plans are on track, $10,000 might be better spent paying down debt. Extremely low interest rates made it easy for individuals to refinance high-interest-rate debt, but the future interest-expense savings from paying down even reasonably priced debt could potentially outweigh investment returns. 

Another option is investing in a good cause by donating some of the money to charity. This serves a dual benefit: helping others and earning a tax write-off. There is certainly no shortage of worthwhile charities in need, especially with the recent spate of natural disasters. The resulting tax benefit will largely depend on your tax bracket. And remember to check with your employer to see if they’ll match a portion of the gift.

As always, make sure you consult a financial adviser or tax professional to fully understand how these strategies might affect your financial plan.

Way to play it with ETFs: There used to be an ETF that donated a chunk of its fee to charity, called the AdvisorShares Global Echo ETF (GIVE), but it liquidated this May as investors shunned its 1.5 percent fee. Vanguard, along with many other financial services firms, has a nonprofit arm specializing in donor-advised funds, which are a sort of long-term charitable savings account and a way to make the most of the tax advantages of charitable giving.

 

Performance of last quarter’s ETF plays: The Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), which represents more than 7,700 stocks in 60 countries, rose 4.7 percent.

Avoid Taking On More Risk  

Investors who have $10,000 to put to work may well be experiencing the anxiety caused by what I call the asset allocator’s dilemma. After several years of strong equity market returns and interest rates at historic lows, the major asset classes don’t look all that spectacular from a valuation standpoint.

Equity valuations, while not in bubble territory, are a bit stretched, leaving many investors sitting on their hands waiting for a correction or searching for a shiny, undervalued opportunity. And while fixed income can still play a diversification role in a portfolio, yields remain historically low, providing very little income. Hence the dilemma. 

Faced with this dilemma, behavioral biases can lead investors to consider alternative asset classes or taking on additional risk. Perish the thought! You may be tempted to aim for the sky in a bid for stellar returns, but like Icarus, whose wax wings melted when hubris caused him to fly too close to the sun, so too will you risk a portion of your $10,000 investment melting away. 

It’s tempting at times, and the current market is one of those times, to chase a narrow “opportunity” that hubris says will outperform. Resist this temptation and do exactly the opposite. If you're an equity investor, consider investing in a broad market capitalization-weighted index fund that covers the global stock market. The best equity investment opportunities may not be obvious in this environment, but I can guarantee they’re contained in such a portfolio. 

Now is the time to double down on strategies that are tried, true and lasting, such as low cost, diversification, low turnover and tax efficiency—all things you can put to work in your favor, and all things that an index fund offers.

Boring? Maybe. But they’ll keep you from flying too close to the sun.

Way to play it with ETFs: The Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) covers the entire world in one shot, Balchunas notes. It represents more than 7,700 stocks in 60 countries; half of its holdings are in the U.S. It has a fee of 0.11 percent.

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