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Tesla Model 3 Tracker

We built our own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break Elon Musk's master plan.


Total cars


Per week

Tesla accomplished something no other automaker can claim: It made a relatively affordable electric car, the Model 3, that hundreds of thousands of people lined up to buy. The only problem is that Elon Musk and company couldn't produce enough of them.

Sluggish output after the Model 3 launched in July 2017 frustrated fans and confounded Wall Street. That’s why Bloomberg built its own tool to estimate the number of Model 3s rolling out of the factory in Fremont, California. This projection relies on Vehicle Identification Numbers (VINs), unique strings of digits displayed on every new car sold in the U.S.

Our best estimate is that Tesla has manufactured 6,145 Model 3s so far—or 0 in the current quarter—and is now building approximately 572 a week. Those figures, and the charts below, represent Bloomberg’s latest estimates and will automatically update to reflect changes in the data.

Total Model 3 Production

Tesla’s reporting
Bloomberg estimates

Note: Trend is a three week projection of the model based on the most recent data points available. Source: Tesla, Bloomberg

Weekly Model 3 Production Rate 

Bloomberg estimates
Raw weekly data

Note: We use a 13-week trailing average to assess the weekly production rate. The raw weekly data are subject to temporary fluctuations and don't represent our best estimate of current output. Source: Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Model 3 tracker relies on data from official U.S. government resources, social media reports, and direct communication with Tesla owners. We have two methods for gathering and analyzing the VIN data. Tesla declined to comment.

Submit your Model 3 VIN

Method 1

We’ve been tracking VINs that Tesla registers with U.S. safety regulators. The modern VIN system was standardized beginning in 1954 in order to prevent car theft. Today, VINs are frequently used to expedite recalls.

By sending digital requests to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration website, we can get a good picture of how many VINs have been registered for Model 3s at any given time. We track the number of VINs between batch registrations and use the number of intervening days to estimate a production rate.

Tesla Registered VINs Model

VINs registered with NHTSA
Bloomberg estimates for Model 3 production

Source: NHTSA, Bloomberg

There are limits to this method. Automakers register VINs in large batches that anticipate coming production, which means that numbers will be assigned before a new car starts its journey down the assembly line. There’s theoretically no limit to the number of VINs Tesla might register in a batch.

Method 2

For our second data set, we scoured the internet for VINs posted by people on social media—Reddit, Tesla Motors Club and other websites frequented by Tesla customers and fans. Almost a half-million people with $1,000 reservations were waiting, in some cases with fraying patience, for their chance to buy a Model 3. As early cars began to trickle out in 2017, fans began reporting any chance encounter on roads and in parking lots.

These sightings often include VINs, which are visible beneath the windshield. It’s a crude way to track the rollout because not all VINs are produced sequentially, deliveries can be delayed, and even the most enterprising Model 3 sleuths will inevitably miss some newly released cars. 

We took the VIN data gathered from social media and added a layer of self-reported VINs submitted directly to Bloomberg. Do you own a Model 3 or have you spotted one in the wild? Submit the VIN here. We don’t publish full VIN sequences or any personally identifying information.

Tesla Spotted VINs Model

VINs from social media
North American VINs reported to Bloomberg
International VINs reported to Bloomberg
Bloomberg estimates for Model 3 production
Submit your VIN

Source: Reddit, Tesla Motors Club, Bloomberg

For our estimate, we’ve aligned the two datasets with Tesla’s reported production and averaged the results from the two methods. Given the sharp trajectory of a production ramp up, there may be sudden increases in output that this model is slow to catch. We will continue to make adjustments to the model as Tesla publishes new production figures at the end of each quarter.

Why Are We Doing This?

Back in 2010, Tesla became the first publicly traded carmaker to emerge in the U.S. in 54 years. Now its market value rivals Ford and General Motors, companies producing orders of magnitude more vehicles than Tesla. Most of the cars Tesla sells today are priced to compete with luxury models made by Mercedes, BMW and Porsche.

But Tesla CEO Elon Musk wants his electric-car company to become a dominant mass-production player that eventually extends its reach to electric trucks and beyond. The Model 3—with a sticker price as low as $35,000—is Tesla’s first step into the mainstream. That plan only works if the company can figure out how to build and sell exponentially more cars. And, as often happens with Musk’s aggressive goals, Tesla has repeatedly fallen short of its own manufacturing targets.

Tesla's Production vs Tesla’s Targets

Bloomberg production estimate
Tesla's 1-week burst rate targets
Tesla's targets for sustained production

Source: Tesla, Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Model 3 tracker has been accurate, outperforming the average estimate of Wall Street analysts every quarter since its introduction and coming within 220 cars of Tesla's reported output for the third quarter of 2018. That doesn’t mean the tracker is infallible. We’ve updated the methodology as Model 3 production has scaled and may continue to do so as we receive more verified quarterly data from the company.

Tesla production Bloomberg estimate Difference
2018 Q1 9,766 9,285 -5%
2018 Q2 28,578 27,957 -2%
2018 Q3 53,239 53,457 +0.4%
2018 Q4 61,394 61,113 -0.5%

Source: Tesla, Bloomberg

Quarterly sales of the Model 3 now make it one of the best-selling sedans in the U.S. That's all the more remarkable as an electric car with an average selling price of more than $50,000. The next step for Tesla will be to prove that it can sustain those volumes and sell the cars profitably, even as it introduces lower-priced versions and opens up sales to overseas markets.

If Tesla can’t figure out how to make more cars soon, it could open a lane for rivals from Detroit and overseas to establish the high-volume market for a $35,000 electric car—one that Tesla has had in its sights from its very beginning. Musk’s ambitions are big, and they all ride on meeting the unprecedented demand for the Model 3.

Tesla Production Blog